CME ScoreBoard Header

CCMC CME Scoreboard

CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2025-07-20T07:53:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2025-07-20T07:53Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/40157/-1
CME Note: CME first seen to the ESE in STEREO A COR2 starting at 2025-07-20T07:53Z. CME is also seen to the SE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and GOES CCOR-1. The source of this CME is likely a small filament eruption centered around S25E17 best seen in GOES SUVI 304 beginning around 2025-07-20T07:00Z. It is also worth noting an eruption from AR 14150 beginning around 2025-07-20T05:00Z in GOES SUVI 304 that could be a less likely source candidate. Measurement of this CME indicates some eastern deflection. | CME may have been swept up into a concurrent coronal hole high speed stream, no separate indication of CME arrival was observed within HSS: 2025-07-22T11:33:00-HSS-001.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-07-23T00:53Z (-4.22h, +5.89h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 66.0%
Prediction Method: CMEFM v.0.1
Prediction Method Note:

Time of Launch: 2025/07/20 07:40Z
Plane of Sky 1: 15:30Z; 31.5Rsun; SE Direction
Plane of Sky 2: 20:20Z; 31.5Rsun; NW Direction
POS Difference: 4:50
POS Midpoint: 17:55Z
TOL/Midpoint Difference: 10:15

Numeric View/Impact Type: +1
POS Difference Resulted Value: ~6.36
Travel Time: ~6.36 * 10:15 = 65:13

Predicted L1 Arrival: 2025-07-23T00:53Z

Error Parameters:
 - POS Difference: 1 Hour
 - Travel Time Square Root: 50%

Notes:
Coronagraph Imagery Quality: 1/5
Method Update: https://www.desmos.com/calculator/qk6urcusaj


Forecast Creation Time: 2025/07/21 15:46Z

Lead Time: 33.03 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Garrett Imhoff (Other) on 2025-07-21T15:51Z

CME Scoreboard Footer

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Policy